Spring ends, summer begins
The (meteorological) spring is coming to an end. According to the meteorological calendar, summer begins the day after tomorrow, on June 1st. A good time to take stock of spring. This will be discussed today in our
climate blog
made.
But it’s also a good time to take a look at the coming summer. But is that even possible? Of course, you think. There’s a seasonal forecast on the MeteoSwiss website.
MeteoSwiss seasonal outlook
Forecast for the seasonal average temperature for northern and eastern Switzerland for June to August 2023.
Forecast for the seasonal temperature average for northern and eastern Switzerland for June to August 2023. (Source: MeteoSwiss)
The seasonal outlook predicts a higher average temperature for Switzerland than the average of the last 20 years. You can find the seasonal outlook and the explanation of the graph
here
.
Copernicus seasonal forecast
But seasonal forecasts are not only published on our homepage. You can find quite comprehensive documentation on seasonal forecasts for the whole world at
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
We will now take a closer look at the forecast for Europe.
Precipitation within the norm, temperature slightly above
The seasonal forecast looks at precipitation and temperature, among other things. It shows how likely it is that the summer will be wetter or drier, or warmer or colder, than the climatology would suggest.
As far as precipitation is concerned, the seasonal forecast for the Mediterranean region suggests a wetter summer in many places. This has a probability of 40-50%, and in some places over North Africa the probability is even over 50%.
Forecast of the probability that mean precipitation between June and August will be in the lower, middle, or upper third of the climatological spectrum.
Forecast for the probability that the mean precipitation between thailand phone number library June and August will be in the lower, middle or upper third of the climatological spectrum.
In the other regions of Europe, namely in Central, Northern and Eastern Europ
e and accordingly also in Switzerland, there is no signal of a drier or wetter summer. The precipitation in the summer forecast is approximately normal.
The signal is somewhat more pronounced in terms
of temperature. For Europe, a summer that is too warm is fixed “content not yet available generally forecast, with a probability of 70-100% in the Mediterranean region and 60-70% in Western Europe and Switzerland.
Prediction of the probability that the mean summer awb directory temperature will be in the lower, middle or upper third of the climatological spectrum.
Forecast for the probability that the mean summer temperature will be in the lower, middle or upper third of the climatological spectrum. (Source: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/)
In summary, we can say that we expect a warmer summer with “normal” rainfall in Switzerland.
How is the seasonal forecast interpreted?
But what exactly can we do with it? Do I have to expect rainy weather in the South of France during my camping holiday in July? Or should I postpone my camping holiday to England? The seasonal forecast is not that simple.